El Niño is gaining strength and may become one of the most powerful events in recent decades. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency specializing in weather and climate, has issued a warning that the phenomenon is likely to intensify further in the coming months, reaching its peak in December 2026. Forecasts suggest it will persist until February 2027, potentially affecting temperatures and rainfall distribution across many regions worldwide.
According to the climate update released by the organization, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could hit record levels from October to December 2026. This anomaly could disrupt global atmospheric circulation, altering weather patterns and impacting economic activities, ecosystems, and vulnerable communities.
El Niño is associated with the unusual warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is a major natural cause of climate variability. Its effects can be felt far from its origin, influencing temperatures and rainfall patterns. In some areas, it may lead to prolonged droughts, while in others, it increases the likelihood of heavy rains and flooding.
Experts are particularly concerned about the potential overlap between a strong El Niño event and human-induced global warming. The interaction between these phenomena could exacerbate the thermal anomalies observed in recent years, further raising average temperatures in various parts of the world.
"El Niño will continue to intensify as it approaches its expected peak in December," the WMO stated in its monthly update, indicating the possibility of above-normal temperatures across much of the globe and significant changes in rainfall distribution.
The organization's director, Celeste Saulo, emphasized that the phenomenon is now fully developed and is rapidly strengthening. According to the agency's estimates, the likelihood of it persisting until February 2027 is nearly 100%, and its intensity could place it among the most significant episodes recorded since at least 1950.
The impacts, however, will not be uniform. El Niño can produce vastly different effects depending on the region and season, making it crucial to monitor atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Seasonal forecasts are therefore an essential tool for helping the most exposed countries prepare for potential water, agricultural, and weather emergencies.
The coming months will be crucial in assessing the true extent of the event, while the scientific community remains focused on the interaction between natural climate variability and an increasingly pronounced trend of global warming.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved