The global economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of recent crises, but its ability to withstand further shocks is diminishing. This is the assessment presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled during the institution's meetings in Bangkok.
Following a series of economic and geopolitical crises, culminating in the Middle East conflict and subsequent energy market tensions, global growth has continued to demonstrate resilience. However, the IMF warns that this adaptability may soon be tested again.
In the report's introduction, Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro notes that the global economy has endured despite an exceptional wave of shocks, but cautions that this resilience is under strain and may not suffice against future disruptions.
The warning comes amid fragile energy balances, limited room for economic policies, and uncertainties surrounding international tensions.
Link to AI and Energy Drive GrowthAI and Energy Drive Growth
According to the IMF, two key factors have significantly mitigated the impact of recent crises: the reorganization of energy supply chains and increased investments in artificial intelligence.
The shift in energy trade routes has allowed many economies to adapt to supply challenges, partially offsetting the effects of supply disruptions.
Simultaneously, investments in artificial intelligence development have been a major economic driver, boosting demand for technological infrastructure, production capacity, and advanced services.
These elements have helped keep the global economy moving despite unfavorable international conditions. However, the IMF warns that these factors might not provide sufficient protection in the event of new crises.
Energy reserves are gradually depleting, and further geopolitical tensions could lead to new price hikes and supply disruptions, impacting inflation and production.
Link to High Debt and Limited Central Bank LeewayHigh Debt and Limited Central Bank Leeway
The international landscape is further complicated by public finance conditions. High levels of debt in many countries limit governments' ability to implement new economic support measures should additional shocks occur.
The need to control debt reduces the scope for expansive fiscal policies, just when households and businesses might require interventions to cope with potential price increases.
Central banks also face complex decisions. The risk of renewed inflationary pressures requires maintaining a focus on price stability, limiting the possibility of supporting growth through more accommodative monetary policy. This creates a particularly delicate balance, where the global economy continues to grow but with potentially less effective response tools than in the past.
Link to IMF Raises Italy's Growth Forecasts for 2026 and 2027IMF Raises Italy's Growth Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
Amid global uncertainties, the IMF has revised upward Italy's economic outlook. For 2026, GDP growth is now estimated at 0.8%, an improvement of three-tenths of a percentage point from the 0.5% forecast in July.
The positive revision also applies to 2027, with the IMF forecasting a 0.6% GDP increase, one-tenth higher than the previous estimate. These new projections suggest a better-than-previously-expected performance, although they confirm a modest expansion pace.
Despite the improved forecasts, Italy's structural economic challenges and vulnerability to energy price fluctuations remain. Energy is identified as a major risk factor by the IMF, especially for economies heavily affected by supply cost variations.
Link to Italian Inflation at 3.3% in 2026, Above Eurozone AverageItalian Inflation at 3.3% in 2026, Above Eurozone Average
Alongside the positive GDP revision, the World Economic Outlook presents a less favorable inflation scenario. According to the new forecasts, Italy's average inflation will reach 3.3% in 2026, surpassing the Eurozone average of 3.1%.
For 2027, the IMF anticipates a slowdown to 2.8%, aligning with the Eurozone average.
This figure reflects the impact of energy tensions related to the Middle East conflict, which have fueled price pressures in many economies.
Among major Eurozone countries, only Spain is projected to have higher inflation than Italy in 2026. The IMF forecasts Spain's inflation at 3.7% in 2026, dropping to 2.7% in 2027. In Germany, inflation is expected to rise from 2.7% this year to 3.1% in 2027.
France is expected to experience more moderate inflationary pressures, with rates of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% the following year. In the United States, the immediate impact of the energy crisis is expected to be particularly significant, with inflation projected at 3.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
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