Nidal Shoukeir, Trump and the Middle East Peace “Dilemma”

Caught between Donald Trump’s ambition, fueled by sheer force of will, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s calculated obstructionism, driven by political survival instincts, the Middle East peace equation finds itself once again back at square one

By Dr. Nidal Shoukeir

Professor of Strategic Communications and Governmental Relations

dazi In recent weeks, one enduring truth has become increasingly evident: defusing crises and achieving peace in the Middle East is one of the most complex tasks of the modern era—perhaps even bordering on the impossible. At the heart of this geopolitical labyrinth lies the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, a protracted struggle that has shaped regional dynamics for more than seven decades and remains the greatest obstacle to any real peace project in the region.

Despite decades of negotiations, wars, peace proposals, and thousands of hours of diplomatic efforts, neither global powers nor the international community have succeeded in reaching a lasting solution. What began as a nationalist conflict has since taken on religious and ideological dimensions, rendering it more intractable and turning the cause into a bargaining chip within a broad political marketplace—both inside and outside the region.

With the return of Donald Trump to the global political stage following his reelection and reentry into the White House earlier this year, some believed the moment for peace had finally arrived. Many placed renewed hope in his comeback, interpreting it as a major opportunity to revive the peace process in a region that has suffered—endlessly—from destruction and instability.

The “Deal of the Century” and the Abraham Accords: Trump’s Legacy Between Progress and Paralysis

This wave of optimism was driven by three key factors:

First, Trump entered his second term portraying himself as a peacemaker, placing Middle East stability at the top of his agenda, and confidently proclaiming that he alone could deliver peace—and quickly.

Second, his well-known “Deal of the Century,” launched during his first term as a roadmap for peace—despite widespread criticism—was seen by some as a pragmatic starting point for a comprehensive settlement. That plan paved the way for a major breakthrough with the Abraham Accords in 2020, which saw key Arab and Gulf states normalize relations with Israel for the first time.

Third, and perhaps most critically, was his close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump was widely perceived as having the political capital to influence Netanyahu toward serious peace commitments. Netanyahu, whose relations with former President Joe Biden were tense at best, made no secret of his admiration for Trump. In fact, he went so far as to reschedule his U.S. visit in July 2024—right in the middle of the presidential campaign—to meet with Trump at his Florida resort.

Gaza Ceasefire 2025: A Breakthrough or Just a Breather?

Indeed, just days before officially taking office, Trump helped broker a ceasefire on January 17, 2025, between Hamas and Israel—bringing an end to the Gaza war that had erupted following the October 7, 2023 attacks. This development was met with hope, with many interpreting it as the first step toward a lasting peace and a demonstration of Trump’s ability to produce rapid results as the returning leader of the world’s most powerful nation.

However, within the first hundred days of his new term, Trump discovered that reality in the Middle East is far more complex than anticipated. His bold rhetoric and initial momentum soon collided with the tangled political web of the region—and more surprisingly, with the internal agendas of his close ally, Benjamin Netanyahu.

This became clear during Trump’s historic regional tour, which included Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—but notably excluded Israel. The absence of a stop in Tel Aviv raised eyebrows across the globe. Many had expected at least a Gaza ceasefire announcement that could pave the way for a tangible peace process.

Trump and Netanyahu: Peace Postponed by Personal Politics

It is increasingly evident that the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is entering a tense and uncertain phase. Trump, who had heavily counted on Netanyahu’s support for his peace vision, now sees his longtime friend as more of an obstacle than a partner. Netanyahu is no longer listening as attentively, nor is he offering genuine cooperation or concessions to support the U.S. vision.

What’s frustrating Trump even more is the growing realization that nearly all regional and international actors—despite differing strategies—are now expressing genuine interest in ending the conflict. Everyone, it seems, except his “friend” Netanyahu. In a sobering development for the White House, the Israeli leader appears increasingly committed to systematically stalling peace efforts, rather than engaging in results-oriented negotiations.

Some analysts suggest Netanyahu is deliberately hindering progress to avoid political accountability and potential legal prosecution. Senior White House officials have publicly confirmed that Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with the ongoing war, particularly with the human toll on Palestinian civilians. He has reportedly instructed his team to deliver a clear message to Netanyahu: “Enough is enough.”

Today, Trump appears genuinely determined to go down in history as a peacemaker. He understands that brokering a historic Middle East settlement would be a defining achievement of his presidency—his political crown jewel. He also recognizes that his Arab and Gulf allies represent the most credible engine for any realistic peace plan that safeguards Palestinian rights and ensures regional balance.

At the same time, he knows that this vision cannot be realized without a fundamental change in the Israeli approach—or at least in Israel’s current leadership, which continues to prioritize narrow political interests over the broader good of the state and the region.

The central question remains:

Can Trump break the cycle and find a path to resolve the Middle East’s most complex and enduring conflict—securing a historic peace deal that finally brings the region out of its decades-long deadlock?

(Associated Medias) - Tutti i diritti sono riservati