Washington D.C. / Brussels, October 2025 – Nearly a year after his victory in the November 2024 presidential election, US President Donald Trump is preparing to inaugurate his second term, bringing with him a political agenda that is already reshaping international relations and raising deep concerns among longtime allies, particularly in Europe.
Trump's victory over Kamala Harris (with approximately 312 electoral votes and 49.80% of the popular vote) marked a pivotal moment, one whose most significant impact is expected to be on US foreign and trade policy, with Europe at the forefront of adapting to the renewed "America First" approach.
NATO and the Future of Ukraine
The main point of friction with Europe concerns collective security and the war in Ukraine:
Pressure on NATO: Trump, supported by Vice President J.D. Vance reiterated his threat not to defend NATO member states that fail to meet the 2% GDP defense target. This approach is forcing European capitals to rapidly review their military budgets and take greater responsibility for their own security, as Vance also underscored in his speech at the Munich Security Conference.
The Ukraine Question: The new administration has sent clear signals about the possibility of ending the war with territorial concessions from Ukraine and blocking Kyiv's NATO membership for an extended period (up to 20 years). These statements have generated anxiety in the Baltic Republics and Eastern Europe, which fear a more bold Russia.
Global Trade and the Tariff War
On the economic front, Europe is already facing the prospect of new and aggressive protectionist policies:
New Tariffs: Trump has announced his intention to introduce tariffs of 10-20% on all imported goods, with tariffs potentially reaching 60% on Chinese products. For Europe, and Italy in particular, exports to the US risk being hit by a new "tariff war."
EU Response: In an attempt to maintain dialogue, the European Commission responded to the tariff threats by freezing retaliatory measures until August 2025. However, the general expectation is that Europe will be forced to make a difficult choice between pursuing US protectionism or exploiting the diplomatic and economic space opened up by American isolationism.
Global Perspectives: The Rise of Multipolarity
The Trump-Vance Administration's approach is seen by many analysts as accelerating the shift toward a multipolar international order. With the United States reducing its commitment to historic alliances, other actors, particularly the European Union, are being called upon to fill the void and assume a more assertive role in global affairs, balancing their ambition with the need for stability in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical context.
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