The Israeli parliamentary elections reveal a deeply divided country and an uncertain political landscape. Benjamin Netanyahu manages to keep his bloc ahead of the opposition, but the partial results do not guarantee him the numbers needed to independently form a new government. According to data released by the Central Election Commission, with 76.8% of the ballots counted, the outgoing prime minister's bloc reaches 54 seats, while the coalition led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot stops at 47. The two main Arab-Israeli formations collectively win 19 seats.
An absolute majority in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament composed of 120 members, requires at least 61 deputies. Neither of the two main blocs reaches the necessary threshold to govern without agreements with other political forces.
The situation could still change with the completion of the vote count, especially considering the special votes that will be counted later.
Link to Arab Parties Become the Balance of PowerArab Parties Become the Balance of Power
The most significant result of the consultation concerns the parliamentary weight achieved by the formations representing a significant part of the Israeli Arab population. The Joint List and Ra'am, the party led by Mansour Abbas, together reach 19 seats in the latest surveys. A result that could make them indispensable interlocutors for building an alternative majority to Netanyahu. Adding the 47 parliamentarians attributed to the opposition to the 19 of the Arab lists, one would theoretically reach 66 seats, five over the absolute majority.
The possibility of translating this sum into a concrete political alliance remains to be verified. During the election campaign, Eisenkot had shown opposition to an agreement with the Arab parties, while some opposition forces now consider it inevitable to open a dialogue.
The leader of the Democrats, Yair Golan, has invited Netanyahu's opponents to overcome divisions and build a coalition capable of also representing Arab citizens. According to Golan, excluding these formations would mean giving up the possibility of political change and leaving the outgoing prime minister with a decisive advantage. Mansour Abbas also claimed the new weight of his formation, ensuring that Ra'am intends to actively participate in decisions about the country's future.
Link to Netanyahu Claims Likud's Primacy and Aims for a Right-Wing GovernmentNetanyahu Claims Likud's Primacy and Aims for a Right-Wing Government
Despite the absence of a defined majority, Benjamin Netanyahu chose to present the result as a confirmation of his party's centrality. Speaking to Likud supporters in Jerusalem, the prime minister emphasized that his formation remains the main Israeli political force, reiterating the goal of building a national executive supported by conservative and religious parties. The prime minister also expressed strong opposition to the formation of a government dependent on the support of Arab-Israeli formations.
Within his bloc are the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, as well as the nationalist right-wing formations Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. The composition of this alliance represents one of the central elements of the future political negotiation, considering the different priorities of the religious parties and the more radical right. Netanyahu also highlighted national security issues, indicating collaboration with the United States as a strategic element to address regional threats, starting with Iran.
Link to Eisenkot and Bennett Challenge the Prime Minister: “It's Time for Change”Eisenkot and Bennett Challenge the Prime Minister: “It's Time for Change”
On the opposite front, the main opposition leaders have interpreted the vote as a sign of no confidence in the outgoing government. Gadi Eisenkot described Netanyahu as a prime minister destined for a transitional phase, urging him not to use security issues to strengthen his political position. The former Chief of Staff also assured that he wants to work on forming an alternative majority, avoiding another return to the polls.
Naftali Bennett shared this view, supporting the need to overcome personal rivalries among parties opposed to Netanyahu to build a stable government. Yair Lapid also spoke of a political defeat for the outgoing executive, arguing that the election result demonstrates a significant portion of the electorate's desire to open a new phase. However, the opposition's statements must contend with a complex parliamentary reality: without an agreement with at least some of the Arab representatives, the path to a majority appears particularly difficult.
Link to Trump Claims His Support for NetanyahuTrump Claims His Support for Netanyahu
The Israeli elections have also attracted significant attention in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking to journalists at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, expressed satisfaction with the initial results of his Israeli ally. Trump suggested that his public support for Netanyahu might have contributed to the comeback recorded during the vote count and in the latest electoral projections.
The U.S. president nonetheless acknowledged that it would be premature to draw definitive conclusions, noting that he has not yet discussed the election outcome directly with Netanyahu. The relationship between the two leaders remains one of the most significant elements of Israeli foreign policy, especially concerning Iran, regional security, and the future of the Gaza Strip.
Link to Turnout at 77.7%, Highest Participation in DecadesTurnout at 77.7%, Highest Participation in Decades
The consultation was characterized by particularly high participation. According to the Central Election Commission, 77.7% of eligible voters went to the polls, totaling 5,695,682 voters. This is the highest figure recorded since 2001, with an increase of about 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous elections.
Particularly significant was the mobilization of Arab-Israeli voters, who helped strengthen the weight of their parliamentary representations. Among the military, participation was also high: the Israel Defense Forces reported a turnout of 79.9%, 6.2 percentage points higher than the previous consultation.
Link to The Count of Special Votes Could Still Alter ResultsThe Count of Special Votes Could Still Alter Results
One of the elements preventing the parliamentary picture from being considered definitive concerns the ballots cast through the double-envelope system. This procedure is used, among others, by the military, diplomats abroad, and some categories of voters unable to vote at regular polling stations. The ballots require additional checks to avoid duplications and are therefore counted separately.
According to information released by the electoral authorities, the number of special votes could exceed half a million. Their count will continue until Thursday evening, while further checks will be necessary before the final certification of the results. In a Parliament characterized by such narrow margins, even limited variations in seat distribution could influence negotiations between parties.
Link to Gaza, Security, and the October 7 Commission: Issues Dividing IsraelGaza, Security, and the October 7 Commission: Issues Dividing Israel
The election result comes at a particularly delicate time for Israel, still marked by the consequences of Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent developments of the conflict in Gaza. The families of the victims have requested that the new Parliament establish a state commission of inquiry to ascertain the political and institutional responsibilities related to that day. According to family representatives, there could be a broad majority in the new Knesset in favor of opening the investigation.
Meanwhile, representatives of the radical right continue to defend a particularly hard line on Palestinian territories. Minister Bezalel Smotrich reiterated his support for the expansion of settlements and the prospect of new Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, highlighting how territorial and security issues will continue to weigh on the next government's balance.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved