The Israeli parliamentary elections reveal a deeply divided nation and an uncertain political landscape. Benjamin Netanyahu manages to keep his bloc ahead of the opposition, but the partial results do not provide him with the numbers needed to independently form a new government. According to the Central Election Commission, with 76.8% of the votes counted, the outgoing prime minister's bloc reaches 54 seats, while the coalition led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot stops at 47. The two main Arab-Israeli parties collectively secure 19 seats.
An absolute majority in the Knesset, Israel's 120-member Parliament, requires at least 61 deputies. Thus, neither of the main blocs reaches the necessary threshold to govern without agreements with other political forces.
The scenario could still change as the vote count is completed, especially considering the special votes that will be tallied later.
Link to Arab Parties Become the Decisive FactorArab Parties Become the Decisive Factor
The most significant outcome of the election is the parliamentary influence gained by parties representing a substantial portion of the Israeli Arab population. The Joint List and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, together achieve 19 seats in the latest counts. This result could make them essential partners in forming an alternative majority to Netanyahu. Combining the 47 seats attributed to the opposition with the 19 from the Arab lists theoretically totals 66 seats, five more than the absolute majority.
However, the possibility of translating this sum into a concrete political alliance remains to be seen. During the election campaign, Eisenkot expressed opposition to an agreement with the Arab parties, while some opposition forces now consider it inevitable to engage in dialogue.
Democratic leader Yair Golan has urged Netanyahu's opponents to overcome divisions and build a coalition that also represents Arab citizens. According to Golan, excluding these parties would mean missing the chance for political change and giving the outgoing prime minister a decisive advantage. Mansour Abbas also emphasized the newfound influence of his party, asserting that Ra'am intends to actively participate in decisions about the country's future.
Link to Netanyahu Claims Likud's Primacy and Aims for a Right-Wing GovernmentNetanyahu Claims Likud's Primacy and Aims for a Right-Wing Government
Despite the lack of a clear majority, Benjamin Netanyahu has chosen to present the result as a confirmation of his party's centrality. Speaking to Likud supporters in Jerusalem, the prime minister highlighted that his party remains Israel's main political force, reiterating the goal of forming a national government supported by conservative and religious parties. He also strongly opposed the formation of a government dependent on Arab-Israeli parties' support.
His bloc includes the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, as well as the nationalist right-wing parties Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. The composition of this alliance is a central element of future political negotiations, given the differing priorities of religious and more radical right-wing parties. Netanyahu also emphasized national security issues, citing collaboration with the United States as a strategic element to address regional threats, particularly from Iran.
Link to Eisenkot and Bennett Challenge the Prime Minister: "It's Time for Change"Eisenkot and Bennett Challenge the Prime Minister: "It's Time for Change"
On the opposing side, key opposition leaders have interpreted the vote as a sign of no confidence in the outgoing government. Gadi Eisenkot described Netanyahu as a prime minister in transition, urging him not to use security issues to bolster his political position. The former Chief of Staff also pledged to work on forming an alternative majority, avoiding another election.
Naftali Bennett echoed this sentiment, advocating for overcoming personal rivalries among parties opposed to Netanyahu to build a stable government. Yair Lapid also spoke of a political defeat for the outgoing government, arguing that the election results show a significant portion of the electorate's desire for a new phase. However, the opposition's statements must contend with a complex parliamentary reality: without an agreement with at least some Arab representatives, achieving a majority seems particularly challenging.
Link to Trump Highlights His Support for NetanyahuTrump Highlights His Support for Netanyahu
The Israeli elections have drawn significant attention in Washington as well. U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, expressed satisfaction with the initial results for his Israeli ally. Trump suggested that his public support for Netanyahu might have contributed to the comeback observed during the vote count and in recent electoral projections.
However, the U.S. president acknowledged that it would be premature to draw definitive conclusions, noting that he has not yet discussed the election outcome directly with Netanyahu. The relationship between the two leaders remains a crucial aspect of Israeli foreign policy, particularly concerning Iran, regional security, and the future of the Gaza Strip.
Link to Voter Turnout at 77.7%, Highest Participation in DecadesVoter Turnout at 77.7%, Highest Participation in Decades
The election was marked by particularly high voter turnout. According to the Central Election Commission, 77.7% of eligible voters went to the polls, totaling 5,695,682 voters. This is the highest figure recorded since 2001, with an increase of about 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous elections.
The mobilization of Arab-Israeli voters was particularly significant, contributing to strengthening their parliamentary representation. Participation was also high among military personnel: the Israel Defense Forces reported a turnout of 79.9%, 6.2 percentage points higher than the previous election.
Link to Special Vote Count Could Still Alter ResultsSpecial Vote Count Could Still Alter Results
One factor preventing the parliamentary picture from being considered final is the ballots cast through the double-envelope system. This procedure is used, among others, by military personnel, diplomats abroad, and some categories of voters unable to vote at regular polling stations. These ballots require additional checks to prevent duplication and are counted separately.
According to information from electoral authorities, the number of special votes could exceed half a million. Their counting will continue until Thursday evening, with further verifications necessary before the final certification of results. In a Parliament characterized by such narrow margins, even limited changes in seat distribution could influence party negotiations.
Link to Gaza, Security, and the October 7 Commission: Issues Dividing IsraelGaza, Security, and the October 7 Commission: Issues Dividing Israel
The election results come at a particularly delicate time for Israel, still affected by the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and subsequent developments in the Gaza conflict. The families of the victims have called for the new Parliament to establish a state inquiry commission to determine political and institutional responsibilities related to that day. According to family representatives, there could be a broad majority in the new Knesset in favor of opening the investigation.
Meanwhile, radical right-wing figures continue to advocate for a particularly hardline stance on Palestinian territories. Minister Bezalel Smotrich reiterated his support for settlement expansion and the prospect of new Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, highlighting how territorial and security issues will continue to weigh on the next government's balance.
(Associated Medias) - All rights reserved